Who could have known Wall Street and the American banking system would fail? Who foresaw the U.S. Government forced to bail out entire financial houses to rescue the nation and world from certain collapse? Of those who predicted, who had the courage to warn?
The answer is many.
Upon Bush’s ascension in 2000, and even before in 1999 as he was putting out “feelers” to run,” I predicted economic collapse as a result of his capturing the White House. His economic philosophy mirrored Ronald Reagan’s except more extreme “trickle-down.” Openly he advocated transforming Clinton’s surpluses into deficits to reward his wealthy fans with excessive tax cuts. It was much more important for the right to “starve the beast” than act in the best interests of the nation.
The pillars of wealth are (1) innovation and (2) industry. America’s twin pillars have both have been deliberately undermined, and like the Twin Towers, have come crashing down in huge plumes – changing history forever.
The right advocated outsourcing. They achieved it with little or no resistance from the passive left. The right advocated giving huge tax breaks for whole industries relocating overseas. The limp-wrist left capitulated as per norm. The right encouraged employers to hire illegals in a direct effort to undermine labor. The left rolled its eyes in opposition. The right weakened education and career training in this country. The left failed to counterattack but instead prescribed compromise.
The result was a house of cards waiting for the first gust. The twins INDUSTRY and INNOVATION collapsed like the WTC. We’ve been surviving on fumes since – credit and deficit. It’s a shell of an economy, a balloon artificially inflated by foreign money, past success, and now artificial stimulus.
As soon as the stimulus evaporates, the economy is destined to dive again. But this time Humpty Dumpty cannot be put back together again, for all the King’s treasure is now controlled by the very element which pushed Humpty off the wall.
As mentioned, more than a few warned of economic calamity. Our little email ring began in 2002 which included about 300 active writers. One was an economist from the Miami area who saw the handwriting on the Wall Street when emailing the group AmeriVoice on December 1, 2002.
His message is presented below – names and specific contact info redacted or code-named for privacy. I happened upon his email early 2011 when reviewing the group’s archived files.
Subject: The Plague of Wall Street... US Banks and their genius elite
Date: 12/1/02 12:28 PM Central Standard Time
From: AmeriVoice Member #127
All investors and banking customers -- beware! Avoid Wall Street like the plague!
Do not have anything to do with the major NYC commercial banks, brokerages or investment banking or securities analyst firms.
Leading contenders Citigroup, Solomon, Smith Barney, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Bros., Bear Stearns, MLPFS, etc... (1) regulatory penalties, (2) equity -bal sheet holdings- adjustments or write-downs, (3) restatement or charge-off of nonperforming loan portfolio items, and (4) the recognized of a total failure to provide a bad debt reserve for high risk and soon to fail OTC derivatives... will soon leave these institutions financially insolvent.
This group of financial geniuses, led by the new avarice ethnicity elite of Wall St., will soon face potential total instability due to this forced recognition of lost asset value and uncoverable debt burden to the estimated tune of about $1,000,000,000,000 (plus)... that's right One Trillion Dollars.
Several in this group, if not all, will collapse entirely without any hope of reorganization or salvaging in any form. This will create a worldwide financial havoc never seen before in all history....
Mark my word, on this date of original authorship (01DEC02), this unfortunate but true scenario of disclosure, recognition, hell and damnation on Wall Street will commence being clearly visible to the public as the fog lifts in the near future.
"Sir" Alan Greenspan's December 1996 warning about "irrational exuberance" was the beginning of the end of this story and that bubble has now been partially pierced to put it politely.
This is not a slow or sluggish recovery but a rational reality that is replacing the ignorance that fostered irrational exuberance.
Stand aside Joe Granville so as not to dampen the remaining fragile and thin fabric of our democracy ... this soon to begin unfolding story will make even you gag.
For the good of the order,
Dr. AmeriVoice Member #127 (anonymous), Juris Doctorate and Doctor of Economology
Credible and factually substantiated
I am an economist, hold a doctorate in law and have throughout my career worked for and/or briefly traveled with four U.S. Presidents.
I have had five careers in my adult life... starting in private law practice, then in corporate America, some public service and several different tenures in academia (college and law school).
I write under my own name, as well as two nom de plumes (one for political science pieces and one for economics).
I prefer to have my message heard and understood without regard to my personal identity... and I can plainly state that I seek no political office. Nor would I consider such even if offered.
I have spoken personally with members of the U.S. House and Senate, and both of the most recent SEC Chairmen Arthur Levitt and Harvey Pitt, whose comments I will not quote at this juncture but whose opinions gave me factual confirmation of my underlying fears.
I feel strongly about the truth and accuracy of these statements and fear their impact on our nation and our economic system.
I cannot say any more to you at this time... but would ask if you would mind disclosing who you are, where you are located, what is your interest in this topic and specifically in my comments?
With personal regards,
Dr. AmeriVoice Member #127, Boca Raton, FL
Emailing on 6 December 2002, Member #127 wrote:
Thank you for your considerate reply, and yes, you have my permission to submit my writing to your "email ring."
Obviously nothing can be assured in this life except uncertainty and the unpredictable nature of our political and economic environment. I feel very strongly about the fact that few are seeming to recognize and none are addressing solutions for the primary root causes underlying most of the economic and political problems facing us in America today... not the media, not the government, nor academia ... not to mention the general public whose dialogue is generally guided by the leadership of these groups...
I appreciate your interest in this one man's opinion. I usually write under the by-line of either "The Independent American Statesman" or "The Independent American Economist" depending upon the economic or social bent and content of the piece. I like to think of my views as the conscience of American independent and nonpartisan thinking and analysis.
I too have a deep concern and interest in environmental and social issues, and my initial career background was in International Law, with a brief internship study at the UN in NYC, so I too have a special interest in foreign relations. I also taught International Law at a Midwest law school a number of years ago.
"If we are about to face economic catastrophe…" a big "if", but unfortunately I feel it is headed directly at us like a speeding asteroid. Alan Greenspan's December 6, 1996 speech warning about "the irrational exuberance" in the market place went nearly totally unheeded… even though it became the most widely quoted phrase of the last decade. I now say that irrational exuberance has become a rational reality that America finally recognizes in Wall Street and the American financial and security circles. The reluctance to invest has been forced but is a god-send if you ask me…
And to back up my belief with some integrity I can honestly and accurately state that I have no personal investment or retirement money in the stock market today.
I have cautioned people since 1997 about the stock market manipulation and tomfoolery. I have also advised family, friends, neighbors and readers since late 1999 to prepare by withdrawing from the market. Those who heeded my advice early on lost nothing but many did not, including an older sister in Michigan, who has now lost a bundle… and just a few years before full retirement.
The old Boy Scout motto still rings true to life today…"Be prepared"!
Again, thank you for your interest and comments.
Dr. AmeriVoice Member #127